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Para ver este documento en español, oprima aquí. The Miami HeraldCourting The Hispanic VoteNew poll shows as a voting bloc, Latinos defy definitionby STEVEN THOMMAJuly 23, 2000
WASHINGTON -- While their growing numbers make them a tantalizing political prize, Hispanic voters refuse to move in ethnic lockstep, placing them at the center of a pivotal struggle between the two major political parties, according to a comprehensive, bilingual poll of likely Hispanic voters by Knight Ridder. With their upcoming national conventions as platforms, both major parties will showcase their courtship of this bloc of voters -- soon to become the nation's largest minority. But they will find their target elusive and difficult to define. With few exceptions, Hispanic voters tend to blend right into America's political mainstream: On the issues, they don't stand put as a singular, monolithic bloc. ``We can identify Latinos by surname,'' said Jonathon Nagler, a social scientist at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, Calif., who studied the poll by Knight Ridder, The Herald's parent company. ``But to think that magically means they have different visions of the issues [from the rest of the population] is mostly not true.'' And Hispanics don't have monolithic views even among themselves. Though nearly one out of two Hispanic voters believed ``very strongly'' that they shared an identity with Hispanics of their same country of ancestry, only one out of three Hispanic voters professed to have ``very similar'' political concerns as Hispanics of different nationalities. ``It's a fluid community that does have some shared issues, obviously a shared history, a shared language,'' said Maria de los Angeles Torres, a political scientist at DePaul University in Chicago. ``. . . But that's it.'' The June poll surveyed 2,700 likely Hispanic voters in Spanish and English and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percent.
A PERSONAL TOUCH: George W. Bush talks to supporter Rosario Marin at La Raza's conference in San Diego earlier this month. REPUBLICAN FODDER: Plurality of Hispanics politically conservative. While Democrats take heart in the fact that three out of five Hispanic voters say they are Democrats -- a far greater ratio than the rest of the national electorate -- a plurality of Hispanic voters describes itself as politically conservative. Rafael Almazan is in many ways typical of the kind of voter who will decide which party will win, weighing issues personally rather than ethnically. Only recently naturalized as a citizen, he will vote this fall for the first time in the 40 years he has lived in the United States. ``I just have my own way of thinking and my own decisions,'' said Almazan, a 59-year-old Mexican American in Garland, Texas, who plans to vote for Republican George W. Bush. When it comes to voting, added David Rodriguez, a 57-year-old construction inspector from Gilroy, Calif., ``I don't look at ethnicity. I look at this country and how you want to live your life.'' The result, analysts said, is that candidates and the two major parties are fighting, not for the entire Hispanic voting bloc, but simply for a larger share of it. ``For the candidates,'' said R. Michael Alvarez, a political scientist at the California Institute of Technology, ``it will be incredibly difficult to develop a consistent national message that appeals to Latinos and Hispanics.'' Among the poll findings:
Franklin Gonzalez's story is common among Hispanics. ``The day I learned about democracy, I thought it was the greatest thing about the country,'' said Gonzalez, a 57-year-old commercial pilot and civil engineer in Miami who came to the United States from Colombia 40 years ago. A Republican who plans to vote for Bush, Gonzalez dismissed the notion of a single-minded Hispanic vote: ``I'm an American and I never identify myself with any groups.'' Still, some differences set Hispanic voters apart politically. Like many immigrants, Hispanics look kindly on the government and its services:
And like European immigrants a century earlier, a majority of Hispanics has found a political home in the Democratic Party. While 35 percent of all Americans call themselves Democrats, nearly 60 percent of Hispanics claim an allegiance to the Democratic Party. REMEMBERING BAY OF PIGS 2 out of 3 Cuban Americans are Republicans. The party holds it biggest edge, 63 percent, among those Hispanics who registered to vote between 1994 and 1997. That suggests a backlash against the anti-immigrant measures espoused by Republicans such as former Gov. Pete Wilson in California, presidential candidate Pat Buchanan, and the GOP majority that took over the U.S. House. The exception is Cuban Americans, who have blamed Democrats since the 1960s for the failed Bay of Pigs assault on Castro's forces. Two out of three Cuban Americans call themselves Republican. ``It's the way we were raised,'' said Gilda Almeyda, 47, a Cuban American in Miami. ``Being Cuban and of Cuban descent, we are all diehard Republicans.'' That politicians and the news media are dissecting this segment of the electorate is hardly surprising. Now comprising 11 percent of the U.S. population, Hispanics are expected to surpass African Americans as the nation's largest minority group in five years, according to the Census. ``That's a reality both parties recognize,'' said Dagoberto Vega, an aide to Vice President Al Gore. And while they still trail African Americans in voting -- twice as many African Americans as Hispanics actually voted in 1996 -- Hispanics are becoming citizens, registering to vote, and casting ballots at noteworthy rates. Their voting rose steadily through the 1990s -- 3.7 percent of the total vote in 1992, 4.1 percent in 1994, 4.7 percent in 1996, 5 percent in 1998. And they are expected to represent 8 percent of the vote this year. In California and Texas, Hispanics already are the dominant minority. But their ranks are fast growing in other states as well, such as Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Illinois. ``There are so many of us,'' said Richard Rodriguez, a letter carrier in Los Angeles. ``Now they are paying attention to us.'' Attention indeed. For the first time in American history, both major party presidential candidates are speaking Spanish in their campaigns. Republican George W. Bush boasts of his brother Jeb's marriage to a Mexican-American woman, and is sending Mexican-American nephew George P. Bush on his own nationwide tour. Democrat Gore notes that his first grandchild was born on the Fourth of July but that he would be even happier if a second were born on Cinco de Mayo. TALKING HEALTH CARE Vice President Al Gore addresses the National Council of La Raza on health care. Gore's campaign noted that even while it is difficult to speak to Hispanics as one, there are some issues and proposals that resonate more with this bloc than with other Americans. Gore spokesman Vega noted that Gore helped pass a $524 million Hispanic Education Action Plan in response to the finding that Hispanics attend college at a lower rate than national averages. Moreover, Gore endorses traditional Democratic proposals to ease poverty and help the poor, things such as raising the minimum wage and expanding health-care coverage that are particularly welcome in poor urban neighborhoods where many Hispanics live. ``Democrats pay attention to more of the issues that affect poor communities,'' said Elena Pardo, a Puerto Rican college student from Newburgh, N.Y., who plans to cast her first vote this November for Gore. But the Democratic hold on Hispanics may be slipping. Just 50 percent of likely Hispanic voters say they plan to vote for Gore, down from 71 percent who voted for Bill Clinton in 1996. And even if Gore succeeds in boosting his Hispanic support before the November election, the poll suggests that the Democrats could lose more of these voters in years to come. Nearly one-third of the Hispanic voters who described themselves as Democrats, for instance, also said they were politically conservative. One reason Gore has lost ground is that Bush is actively pursuing Hispanic votes -- a dramatic reversal in a party that not only ignored Hispanics but was often dominated in the 1990s by anti-immigrant proposals from politicians such as Wilson and Buchanan. Hispanics aligned themselves with Democrats starting in the 1930s when they were courted by Franklin Roosevelt, and solidified that connection when fellow Catholic John F. Kennedy was elected, said Lionel Sosa, a media consultant for the Bush campaign. But they turned more receptive to Republicans when courted by Ronald Reagan, and should do so again when approached by Bush, Sosa said. ``As long as we are included,'' Sosa said, ``. . . whoever pays more attention to us and talks to us in a way that makes an emotional connection is going to win our support.'' Republicans also face a community greatly influenced by the church when it comes to social issues. Three out of five are Catholic, the poll showed. While that rate is lower than in Latin America, many of those who came here and left the Catholic Church did so to join more conservative, fundamentalist Christian denominations. And it is still more than twice the rate of Catholicism in the rest of the United States.
``The Catholic influence is very strong culturally. But it's even truer with apostolic evangelical churches,'' said Adela de la Torre, director of the Mexican American Studies & Research Center at the University of Arizona. James Kuhnhenn and Molly Cummins of The Herald's Washington Bureau contributed to this report.
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REACHING THE AUDIENCE: Participants in the annual national convention of La Raza, reach out July 2 to shake the hand of Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore in San Diego.
Two out of five, a plurality, want more restrictions on abortion. That sentiment is even stronger among non-Catholic Hispanics than Catholics.